U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agriculture Specialists in El Paso, Texas, faced an unexpected challenge this week — 242 pounds of smuggled bologna. And, yes, that’s a whole lot of bologna to deal with.

The drama unfolded around 2 a.m. when authorities say a 52-year-old U.S. citizen from Albuquerque, New Mexico, rolled up to the inspection lanes. After he claimed he had nothing to declare (fruits, vegetables, or meat products), he was sent for a secondary inspection.

Enter CBP Agriculture Canine “Harlee,” who sniffed out trouble in the rear cargo area of the vehicle. And what did they find? Officials said 22 rolls of bologna were cleverly hidden beneath some equipment. But, there’s more — 60 Tramadol tablets were also discovered in the center console, they said. The driver was handed a $1,000 promissory note for the prescription violation, as Tramadol is a Schedule IV-controlled substance, defined as a drug with a low potential for abuse and low risk of dependence.

This wasn’t the first time the same individual had been accused of being involved in a bologna-smuggling operation. Just two months ago, he was accused of attempting to sneak 55 rolls of bologna into the U.S. at the same port of entry. Needless to say, the bologna was seized and destroyed, as it’s a potential threat to U.S. agriculture by carrying foreign animal diseases.

CBP El Paso Director Field Operations Hector A. Mancha warned, “Pork products have the potential to introduce foreign animal diseases to the U.S., which can have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy and our agriculture industry.” He added, “It is always best for travelers to declare any items acquired abroad to help CBP stop the introduction of potentially harmful products.”

The case has been referred to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Investigative and Enforcement Services, where the individual could face a penalty of up to $10,000 if convicted. This is one smuggling operation that will definitely not be going on the “roll” call.

As with the previous incident, the 22 rolls of bologna were seized and destroyed by CBP per USDA regulations.

CNH Industrial’s decision to temporarily halt farm equipment shipments from North American and European factories has put a spotlight on uncertainties surrounding global trade policies and the political maneuvering of tariff threats. The move, which the company directly links to the planned tariffs instigated by the Trump Administration, signals potential disruptions in the farm equipment supply chain at a time when the industry is already grappling with economic pressures.

The statement from CNH said: 

“We are stopping shipments from North America plants and European imports effective today. This is a temporary move until we assess the full impact of planned tariffs on pricing. There are no impacts to production, and parts shipments continue as planned. We will continue to monitor the situation.”

This announcement was somewhat of a surprise, given that CNH’s February earnings call made no mention of a possible shipment pause, and the line item did not make the upcoming summer agenda. However, the company had already been reducing production in late 2024, aiming to lower dealer inventories by over $700 million. In April 2024, the UK-based manufacturer also laid off 200 workers in Wisconsin and announced plans to further reduce its workforce by 2026.

The abrupt nature of this decision suggests CNH is taking a cautious approach, choosing to assess the full impact of tariffs, slated to implement today (barring intervention by Congress), before continuing shipments.

Although President Donald Trump has recently hinted at softening his initial hardline stance, he is moving forward with plans to implement retaliatory tariffs on countries that impose duties or other trade barriers on U.S. imports. Set to take effect on April 2, these tariffs are intended to generate revenue, reshape trade relationships, and encourage companies to shift more of their manufacturing to the United States.

“We may take less than what they’re charging. Because they’ve charged us so much, I don’t think they could take it,” Trump said Monday.

Despite projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicting a nearly 30 percent increase in net cash farm income, the latest Rural Mainstreet Index survey actually projects farm income to decline in 2025, with farmland prices and farm equipment sales falling for the 19th consecutive month. 

Bankers in rural areas are bracing for another year of low commodity prices, tighter margins, and reduced exports, creating a difficult environment for equipment purchases. The pause in CNH shipments could further complicate the situation for farmers and dealers who are already struggling with financing and profitability.

Additionally, RMI’s survey shows that only 7.5 percent of bank CEOs support returning to January 2025 tariff levels, indicating continued concern over trade policies — one of the key factors CNH cited in its decision to reassess pricing before resuming shipments.

China, which has faced 20 percent tariffs since Trump took office, has already retaliated with levies on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. Meanwhile, the European Union has prepared its own list of agricultural and consumer products to target if Trump follows through on his threat of steep tariffs.

Many U.S. farmers fear that the tariffs could depress commodity prices and make American products such as corn, eggs, and soybeans less competitive in global markets. If foreign buyers respond with their own tariffs, exports could decline even further.

The last round of tariffs, implemented in 2018, led to an estimated $27 billion loss in agricultural exports, according to USDA economists. Much of that damage came from the trade war with China, which retaliated after Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods.

In 2018, soybeans were amount the hardest hit, according to the USDA.

The American Soybean Association responded last month to the incoming tariffs.

“Farmers are frustrated. Tariffs are not something to take lightly and ‘have fun’ with. Not only do they hit our family businesses squarely in the wallet, but they rock a core tenet on which our trading relationships are built, and that is reliability. Being able to reliably supply a quality product to them consistently,” said Caleb Ragland, American Soybean Association president and soy farmer from Magnolia, Kentucky.

Farmer sentiment declined in March as concerns over agricultural trade and farm policy weighed on producers’ outlook for the future. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 12 points to a reading of 140, down from 152 a month earlier. Contributing to the weakened sentiment in March was a 15-point drop in the Index of Future Expectations to 144 and the Current Conditions Index falling 5 points to 132.

This month’s survey was conducted between March 10 and 14.

The drop in sentiment was influenced by falling crop prices since mid-February, along with increasing uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and farm policy. Despite the decline, producers remained more optimistic about future conditions than the present, with the Future Expectations Index remaining higher than the Current Conditions Index by 12 points.

Alongside the weakened sentiment, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 5 points to 54 in March. Despite the dip, it is the second-highest reading since June 2021. The Farm Financial Performance Index also saw a drop, decreasing 8 points to 102. While slightly above 100, the index indicates that, on average, producers still anticipate their farm’s financial performance to improve compared to a year ago.

Farmland values hold steady despite declining sentiment

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained steady at 118 in March, matching the previous month’s level and only 6 points below its reading from a year ago. Except for the late summer and early fall of 2024, when sentiment was more pessimistic, the index has generally ranged between 110 and 126 since early 2023. This suggests that farmers maintain a cautious outlook for farmland values, anticipating they will either remain stable or increase modestly in the coming year.

While the overall sentiment shift in March reflects growing uncertainty, farmers remain cautiously optimistic about the future, particularly with farmland values holding steady and the outlook for strong returns in the livestock sector helping to offset weaker expectations among crop producers.

Expectations for agricultural exports hit record low

Since 2019, the barometer surveys have asked producers about their expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years. Historically, exports have been a primary driver of U.S. agricultural production demand and are closely linked to strong farm incomes. Producers reported they were optimistic about export growth in 2019 and 2020 surveys, but that optimism began to decline in 2021 and has continued to erode.

In March, expectations for U.S. exports reached a record low in the survey, with 30 percent of producers anticipating a decline in exports, nearly matching the 33 percent who expect exports to rise.

In addition to worries about exports, farmers’ focus on agricultural policy has shifted over the past year. Since late 2022, barometer surveys have regularly asked producers to identify the most important policies or programs for their farms in the next five years. Before the November 2024 election, farmers reported a higher focus on interest rate policy than trade policy.

However, since the election, trade policy has become a fast-growing concern, with 43 percent of respondents, on average, now citing it as the most critical issue impacting their farms, up sharply from an average of just 21 percent prior to the election.

Uncertainties about trade policy and its potential impact on U.S. agricultural exports are closely tied to farmers’ expectations for farm income. The March survey asked producers about the likelihood of a program similar to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program, created to compensate for lower output prices due to a trade war.

Approximately two-thirds of respondents believe a follow-up to such a program is either “likely” (52 percent) or “very likely” (13 percent) to be implemented. Additionally, 74 percent of farmers in March indicated that the passage of a new farm bill this year was either “very important” (49 percent) or “important” (25 percent) to them.