As the United Nations General Assembly convenes a so-called High-Level Meeting about antimicrobial resistance (AMR), new data has been released that forecasts a dire toll ahead. The data, compiled from more than 200 countries, noted that AMR is poised to jeopardize food security for over 2 billion people and increase annual health care costs by $159 billion annually by 2050.
The analysis, produced by a global partnership of leading health and development organizations, is the first to comprehensively forecast the economic and health burdens of AMR on both humans and food-producing animals. It also found a return of $28 for every $1 invested if urgent action were to be taken now.
According to the UN, AMR is one of the top 10 global health threats facing humanity. It has led to the rise of “superbugs,” including bacteria no longer treatable using antibiotics.
The modelling found that, if no action is taken now, drug resistance could cause annual global GDP losses up to $1.7 trillion by 2050, while the spread of resistant pathogens from livestock to humans, could cost up to $5.2 trillion. It also found that AMR could result in production losses in the livestock sector equivalent to the consumption needs of 746 million people, or more than two billion people in a more severe scenario by the same year.
Historically, animal agriculture used antibiotics not only to treat illness, but also to promote livestock growth. By the time the Food and Drug Administration curtailed the use of antimicrobials for production practices in 2017 through the Veterinary Feed Directive, the use of these medicines in agriculture was already decreasing. But still, antibiotics continue to be used in livestock when sicknesses occur.
“Just like people, animals need antibiotics when they contract a bacterial disease. Antibiotics are the cornerstone of veterinary medicine and help treat farm animals and pets when they fall sick,” said Carel du Marchie Sarvaas, Executive Director of HealthforAnimals. “Antibiotic-resistant disease poses a serious and growing threat to people and animals. This is why the animal health sector has invested billions of dollars in R&D to help prevent animal diseases and reduce the need for antibiotics.
He noted that, from 2019 to 2023, the animal health sector brought more than 70 new vaccines to market to protect animals from disease.
“Every vaccinated animal is an animal that is unlikely to fall sick and need antibiotic treatment, which means resistance has little opportunity to develop,” he said. “It all comes down to prevention, prevention, prevention. It is the foundation of health. Prevention reduces the need for antibiotics, and for instance, in the EU average consumption of antibiotics is now higher in people than in food-producing animals.”
The global analysis released today was published in three reports and was produced by experts at World Organisation for Animal Health, Animal Industry Data, the Center for Global Development, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and RAND Europe, with contributions from The World Bank. Specifically, it used the latest data from 204 countries and 621 subnational locations to forecast the impact of AMR on mortality, health care costs, food security and the global economy.
“The threat of drug-resistant infections to human health is widely recognized, but the impact of AMR on the health of animals, our environment and our economy cannot be overlooked,” said Dr. Emmanuelle Soubeyran, Director General of WOAH. “On top of the drastic human death toll, drug-resistant pathogens can also severely impact animal health and welfare. It creates huge strains on the economy as well as on our sustainable development efforts. For the first time, we have an idea of exactly what is at stake unless the global community takes urgent action now.”
Investing in access to antibiotics and innovation for new drugs could also reduce human health costs by $97 billion per year and increase the labor force by 23 million people, the rates of tourism by 1.2 percent and hospitality by 0.6 percent, adding $960 billion to the annual GDP and generate a further $679 billion per year in health value, the human economic analysis found.
“AMR carries a significant economic burden, but taking prudent action now will see a significant return on investment through a reduction in health care costs, improvements in the economy, and a healthier society at large,” commented Anthony McDonnell, Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development. “It is in high-income countries’ interests to ensure that those in poorer parts of the world have access to high-quality treatment.”
The animal health analysis showed that achieving a global 30 percent reduction in livestock antimicrobial use within a five-year time period can lead to a cumulative increase in global GDP by $120 billion from 2025 to 2050.
“Focusing our efforts in low-and-middle income countries where access to veterinarians is limited and prevention can be a challenge is essential. Increasing finance and other support for producers in these countries can increase uptake of vaccines, biosecurity, diagnostics, improved feed, and other prevention tools,” du Marchie Sarvaas said. “We have seen how the responsible use of antibiotics, together with greater efforts to bring down disease levels in the first place, means we reduce the need to use antibiotics. The animal health sector remains committed to playing its part alongside our counterparts in human medicine to tackle this shared health challenge.”
