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Study: Tariff-induced trade would could hurt U.S. farmers

DAILY Bites

  • Checkoffs say the study points to the potential for a big drop in U.S. exports
  • Both political parties are zeroing in on tariffs to address troubling Chinese trade practices.
  • U.S. farmers could lose ground to Brazil and Argentina.

DAILY Discussion

A new economic study paints a troubling picture of the potential results a renewed U.S.-China trade war could have on hundreds of thousands of farmers and rural communities, showing American-imposed tariffs would come at a steep cost to U.S. producers while benefiting Brazil and Argentina.

The study, commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association and conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, shows a new trade war would result in an immediate drop in corn and soy exports to the tune of hundreds of millions of tons. As a result, Brazil and Argentina would claim the lost market share, which would be extremely difficult for American growers to reclaim in the future.

“The study highlights the dangers that come with broad tariffs on imports,” said NCGA Lead Economist Krista Swanson. “While launching widespread tariffs may seem like an effective tool, they can boomerang and cause unintended consequences. Our first goal should be to avoid unnecessary harm.”

Cautioning against a trade war

ASA Chief Economist Scott Gerlt said, “The U.S. agriculture sector is going through a significant economic downturn. This work shows that a trade war would easily compound the adverse conditions that are placing financial stress on farmers. Even when a trade war officially ends, the loss of market share can be permanent.”

The third-party study comes as U.S. lawmakers and officials from both political parties are increasingly looking at tariff-forward approaches as they work to address troubling Chinese trade practices.

agricultural trade
Image By Lightspring, Shutterstock

Researchers modeled several scenarios that could play out in a new U.S.-China trade war and found a consistent outcome:

  • Severe drop in U.S. exports to China. If China cancels its current waiver (from the 2020 Phase I agreement) and reverts to tariffs already on the books, U.S. soybean exports to China would, according to the study, fall 14 to 16 million metric tons annually, an average decline of 51.8% from baseline levels expected for those years. U.S. corn exports to China would fall about 2.2 million metric tons annually, an average decline of 84.3% from the baseline expectation.
  • Brazil and Argentina would benefit. Brazil and Argentina would increase exports and thus gain valuable global market share. Chinese tariffs on soybeans and corn from the U.S. — but not Brazil — would provide incentive for Brazilian farmers to expand production area even more rapidly than baseline growth.
  • No place to turn. While it is possible to divert exports to other nations, the study found there is insufficient demand from the rest of the world to offset the major loss of soybean exports to China to support the farmgate value.

The study found that trade war would lead to a steep drop in soy and corn prices, resulting in a ripple impact across the U.S., particularly in rural economies where farmers live, purchase inputs, use farm and personal services, and purchase household goods.

Leaders at NCGA and ASA said they believe it is in America’s economic interests to maintain a trading relationship with China, even as both governments work through trade and other concerns. They also noted that they support thoughtful consideration of the impacts tariffs and tariff retaliation could have on U.S. farms and rural communities.

FFA
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4-H survey: Teens want more real-world skills and career prep

DAILY Bites

  • A survey of survey of 1,116 teens finds that students believe education often fails to provide clear career paths.
  • Half of those surveyed thing there are instructional gaps in either technical or life skills.
  • Jill Bramble, President and CEO of National 4-H Council, believes 4-H can help fill the needs of these students.

DAILY Discussion

U.S. teenagers seek more support to develop essential career, life, and technical skills to help them succeed in the future, according to a new survey released by National 4-H Council.

Youth surveyed feel that out-of-school programs are more likely than school to give them confidence (77 percent vs. 63 percent in school) and the ability to manage stress (62 percent vs. 49 percent).

Additionally, young people see gaps in their current education as it relates to career pathways, technical skills and preparation for life after high school.

One noted skill gap is in financial literacy, where 41 percent of teens responded that they want to learn more about money management. Vrishab Nooka, a 17-year-old 4-H’er from North Carolina was one of those youth until he found his passion for finance through 4-H.

“Being a leader of my 4-H club has allowed me to develop excellent public speaking skills, leadership qualities like collaboration and relationship-building, and the ability to think critically to solve problems. These skills are important for any career, and thanks to 4-H, I’ve been able to learn and master them,” said Nooka, who plans to study economics in college.

The survey also shows that while about 70 percent of 4-H teens surveyed feel prepared to apply both technical and life skills in their careers, about half of all teens surveyed do not:

  • Ability to understand and use AI tools (57% feel less prepared)
  • Math skills (51%)
  • Data and analytical skills (48%)
  • Computer and technology skills: (46%)
  • Leadership and team management (41%)
  • Ability to manage stress (40%)
Google Utah 4-H Computer Science Grant
Images courtesy of National 4-H Council

“The world is moving fast for our youth, and schools can’t do it alone. 4-H is here, in every county and parish, to provide opportunities for all youth to build and practice foundational skills to help them thrive in work and life,” said Jill Bramble, President and CEO of National 4-H Council. “Our goal with Cooperative Extension is simple — to impact 10 million youth so they are healthy, productive and engaged; Beyond Ready to take on any challenge in school, in the workplace, in their communities and in life.”

Other key findings:

  • Overall, teens prioritize financial security and personal fulfillment in their future careers. When looking at their ideal careers, teens say they prioritize opportunities that offer good pay (81 percent) and benefits (73 percent) and are in a field they find interesting (80 percent). They see aspects related to workplace culture, such as mentorship opportunities (49 percent) and longevity at one company (39 percent) as less important.
  • Many industries interest teens, with health, arts and entertainment, and STEM leading the way, while STEM-related fields interest 4-H youth the most. The top five for all teens surveyed are:
    • Health, Healthcare and Wellness (19 percent)
    • Arts and Entertainment (17 percent)
    • Engineering (14 percent)
    • Computer Science and Technology (13 percent)
    • Science, Research and Development, and Education (10 percent)
  • 4-H teens surveyed are more likely to have plans for post-high school graduation than their peers:
    • 40 percent more likely to pursue a college degree
    • 2 times more likely to obtain vocational or technical training
    • 2 time more likely to serve in the military.

Entrepreneurship and reaching lifelong goals are higher for 4-H youth. The data shows that youth in 4-H are more confident in reaching important life goals like starting a business, being debt free, making a difference in their community and contributing to science.

The survey of 1,116 teenagers ages 13 to 18, including 273 4-H participants, was conducted online by Hart Research and fielded August 27-September 9, 2024. It accompanies the launch of Beyond Ready, a new initiative set to reach 10 million young people through 4-H’s local programming that prepares them for future careers and success in life.

Diversity in Agriculture
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Protect the Harvest to shut down amid long-running funding challenges

DAILY Bites

  • Protect The Harvest announced on social media that it will cease operations on October 31, 2024.
  • Executive Director Dr. Mike Siemens highlights the frustration of diminishing resources amid growing issues.
  • Founded in 2011, the organization focused on defending farmers’ rights, ensuring food security, and promoting animal welfare.

DAILY Discussion

Protect The Harvest, a nonprofit organization dedicated to advocating for American farmers, ranchers, and outdoor sports, has announced it will cease operations effective October 31, 2024. The organization cites ongoing funding challenges that began during the COVID-19 pandemic as the primary reason for this difficult decision.

Founded in 2011, Protect The Harvest emerged as a voice for promoting food security, defending property rights, ensuring animal welfare, and supporting outdoor activities like hunting and fishing. Over the years, it has worked to inform stakeholders about important issues facing agriculture and the rights of individuals, responding to various threats as they arose.

Their stated mission is to Inform, Protect and Respond — and to do so through facts, science, subject experts, litigation, communications and other resources.

Dr. Mike Siemens, executive director of Protect The Harvest, expressed his disappointment in the organization’s closure.

“Over the past two-and-a-half years, we’ve been diligently working to secure funding that would allow Protect The Harvest to continue operations going forward,” he stated. “But the current economy has made it challenging for many individuals and organizations that have supported us in the past. It’s been frustrating and disappointing to see the number of issues we confront multiply while our resources to address them have diminished. It’s also heartbreaking because we hear from so many stakeholders about how much they value Protect The Harvest and the work we do. Now, other organizations will need to step up to fill the void.”

Forrest Lucas, the founder and chairman of the board, reflected on the organization’s impact since its inception.

“Since Charlotte and I created Protect The Harvest, we’ve helped many people, some who have become good friends, and we’ve accomplished a lot,” he said. “We’ve fought and won a considerable number of important battles that threatened property rights, restricted freedoms, made it more difficult to produce food or own animals, curtailed hunting and fishing, and resulted in greater food insecurity. We have made many friends, enlightened many Americans, and fought the good fights to preserve the nation’s principles and values. But the time has come to pass the torch to others who will promote and defend A Free and Fed America.”

Forrest Lucas is the founder of Lucas Oil Products Inc. and is the namesake of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Indianapolis Colts play and where many National FFA Convention events are held annually. Lucas was awarded American Agri-Women’s 2022 Veritas Award, an honor given to people who have publicly supported agriculture through the “pursuit of truth.”

As Protect The Harvest prepares to shut down, the Lucas family said it is committed to continuing its support for various groups within the agricultural sector to address pressing issues. Protect The Harvest’s website and social media platforms will be deactivated by December 31, 2024.

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